Since its inception, market analysts and economists have predicted a quick death of Bitcoin. In March, the head of Euro Pacific Capital, Peter Schiff, who is also a famous Bitcoin hater, has compared Bitcoin with a sinking ship. Is that really so? Let’s take a look a the three most popular scenarios where Bitcoin could kick the bucket.
- Satoshi Nakamoto, the founder and creator of the world’s largest cryptocurrency, is believed to own 750 000 BTC. If at some point he decides to cash out all of it at once, Bitcoin value would take a huge hit. First of all, Bitcoin is traded on a specifically designated platform (crypto exchange), which has its own limitations and may not have enough liquidity to allow a huge transaction like that. Secondly, 750K BTC is about $ 5 billion. Hypothetically, such a transaction could push the price down and pressure the market for a certain period of time, but taking into account the existing trading ecosystem, it wouldn’t have a major impact on the cryptocurrency market. On the other hand, if market participants get sound evidence that it’s Satoshi himself who is selling Bitcoin, it could stir the pot. This would mean that the inventor of Bitcoin himself has lost confidence in his creation. This scenario will probably trigger market aversion and dampen BTC popularity, but it’s unlikely kill the network completely.
- Bitcoin can be destroyed by national governments. To make it happen, they need to open short positions, bring down the price below $1000 and keep it that way for months. People will simply lose interest in cheap Bitcoin. To ensure a successful dump, governments would need to have sufficient Bitcoin reserves, which they most likely don’t (where would they come from?). Moreover, any shorting or sale is carried out on specific exchanges. There should be a situation in which large exchanges will help governments. This is pretty hard to imagine. The ecosystem will keep balancing itself out to maintain dynamic equilibrium.
- With China seeking to launch digital yuan, Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies become its major competitors. It’s important to note that most of Bitcoin’s computing power – miners, is concentrated in China. The Chinese government can issue a directive for all the miners to unite in order to launch a 51% attack on Bitcoin. This scenario looks to be the most plausible. But don’t forget that Bitcoin is a permissionless blockchain, which allows any miner to transact and join as a validator. And 51% attack does not imply an automatic shutdown of the network. Say, China decides to kill the network and initiates a 51% attack. While this may cause the network disruptions and interrupt the recording of new blocks by other miners, it wouldn’t destroy bitcoin right away. In this case, an emergency update of Bitcoin full node will be released and addresses of these miners will be blocked. In this case, the overall hash rate will drop and complexity will decrease. So, miners located in the States and Europe, those who have bought video cards long ago will be able to resume their work and support the network again.
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