At the end of the week The US Dollar rebounded against all major currencies. This bullish move was caused by an acceleration of activity in the manufacturing sector of the Philadelphia region, a decrease in the number of applications for unemployment benefits and an increase in key macroeconomic indicators.
But this week can disappoint dollar holders.
The US state budget deficit in February 2019 increased by 8.7% to $ 233.977 billion compared to $ 215.239 billion in February last year, reported the country’s finance ministry.
This is a record indicator of a negative balance during the time of settlement.
The EURUSD currency pair bounced from 1.127 support level. The Cayman indicator refreshed minimums on the last week. So we expect growth EURUSD to 1.14 again.
The final stage of Brexit has been set aside to avoid tough Brexit. The EU extended the deadline by two weeks until April 12, so that Premier May would have a little more time to resolve the issue of accepting the deal. If Parliament approves the deal, the extension, in turn, will be until May 22. If the deal fails, an emergency summit will be convened, at which the UK should “designate further actions”, which means either exit without a deal, or an even longer delay.
So British currency is still in a vulnerable position. On the 4-hour chart, we can see a “bearish reversal” pattern that was drowned after 1.3220 resistance testing. We expect GBPUSD will decrease at least to 38.2% Fibo level at 1.3150.
Today we expect Dallas Fed Manufacturing Index. Experts forecast a meaningful increase in business activity.
On Wednesday ECB President Mario Draghi will make a speech at 9 AM EET. A few hours later we also expect speeches of a few ECB members. At 1:30 RM Balance of Trade will be published for the USA and Canada both.
On Tuesday we expect Eurozone sentiment and confidence metrics. Also at 1:30 PM the USA Jobless Claims will be released.
On Friday we will pay attention to Britain GDP Data and Home Sales metrics in the USA.
So our targets for:
EURUSD – 1.14
GBPUSD – 1.3150