There were many economic events that stirred up the markets and created new trends in the last week. The British Pound was falling against most of the major currencies, while the UK government did not have progress in the Brexit deal. One of the main questions about borders in Northern Ireland was not solved.
U.S. markets have had the second wave of the uptrend; most of the indices went in the green zone for the current year. However, the risks of the US and Chinese trade war, disappointment in corporate profits and other problems still haunt investors.
The representative of Saudi Arabia in OPEC reported about the possibility of new measures to adjust excess oil stocks in the near future. The Minister of Energy and Natural Resources voiced the same position.
In addition, there were central banks rate decisions in the last week. Reserve Bank of Australia kept rate at 1.5%, RB of New Zealand kept it at 1.75%, and US FED announced 2.25% interest rate.
Last week, US dollar showed mixed dynamic against other majors while democrats won the U.S. House of Representative elections. However, strong U.S. fundamental data like Producer Price Index and Market PMI helped dollar increase by the end of the week.
A few words about Euro indices.
Last week, Germany’s DAX has finished close to opening at 11532 while European shares were falling as investors kept moving away from risky assets. The reason for that involved a number of political situations, such as with Italy and Brexit. Also, the U.S. stock market affected this. Regarding Italy, The European Commission has rejected the 2019 budget plan because it could not see any reason to review the revised budget.
From the technical point of view, RSI indicator keeps staying in the neutral zone, but on a continued downtrend, bears can reach the 76.8% Fibo level. From the other view, the MACD indicator is moving below zero, SMA-line is lower, what gives us a bullish signal.
And about the Gold.
The spot metal fell again below $1230 after a great run for the previous 2 weeks, breaking the $1220 resistance on its way. Most analysts suppose that gold will be the most popular safe haven for the investors while there is a turbulent situation on the currency markets. However, technically, Gold is in overbought now regarding Cayman data. It shows 75% of buyers and it is a bearish signal for the instrument on the daily chart. We expect falling to previous support $1190.
There will not be a lot of important news in the current week (except UK releases), but most of them will be significant. We are sure that these events will affect the course of trades for the coming week.
The first of them will be Average Earnings in UK on Tuesday and Consumer Price index on Wednesday. If the UK data growth is faster than expectations, the Pound buyers will have a strong hand against the sellers. However, we expect that the GBPUSD currency pair will trade in a 1,2750 -1,2950 range.
On Wednesday, November 14, we expect GDP publications in Eurozone and Germany and Consumer Price index in USA. The important data comes out Thursday: Employment Change and Unemployment Rate in Australia, Retail Sales in USA. On Friday, we expect Consumer Price Index release in Eurozone and ECB President Draghi’s Speech.
Of course, these fundamental releases may have an effect on the currency market. However, we are waiting for falling EURUSD and GBPUSD to new low of November, UKOIL and DAX rising, and Gold price falling.
So, our targets for:
EURUSD – is selling from 1,1370
UKOIL – is buying to $75
GBPUSD – is selling to 1,2750
GOLD – is selling to $1190 in a middle term period
GER30, DAX – is buying to 11970