Hello dear traders! My name is Alina, I am a financial advisor in AMarkets company and today I would like to share some trading ideas for the upcoming week.
The week begins with the publication of the February ZEW index for the eurozone. This index is compiled by German sociologists based on surveys of leading economists and analysts regarding their confidence in economic growth. The previous value of the index was negative (-20.9) and showed that the number of respondents who see the negative future of Europe economics exceeds the number of optimists surveyed by 20.9%. Preserving such sentiments may create an additional negative for the single European currency. We believe that during the week the EUR / USD pair expects a range of 1.13-1.14.
Monday will also be released GDP data for the UK. The Gross Domestic Product released by the National Statistics is a measure of the total value of all goods and services produced by the UK. The GDP is considered as a broad measure of the UK economic activity. Generally speaking, a rising trend has a positive effect on the GBP, while a falling trend is seen as negative.
On Tuesday, February 12, significant for the market of statistics is not expected. However, we advise those who closely monitor domestic political events and the economy in America to pay attention to the monthly report on the state of the US budget and reflect on how long the record may continue in the United States. Recall that the US budget deficit is $205 billion. Data on the reduction of the budget deficit can strengthen the dollar to all world currencies.
On Wednesday, February 13, it will be possible to call “Inflation Day”. The UK will publish data on inflation in January. Recall that in December, on an annualized basis, inflation rose by 2.1%. We see the values of the GBP / USD pair in the near future at the 1.29-1.3 range.
Also, there will be published the Interest Rate Decision by the Reserve Bank of New Zealand. If the RBNZ is hawkish about the inflationary outlook of the economy and raises the interest rates it is positive, or bullish, for the NZD. Immediately after that, The New Zealand Reserve Bank publishes its Monetary Policy Statement quarterly. Each Monetary Policy Statement must set out: how the Reserve Bank proposes to achieve its targets; how it proposes to formulate and implement monetary policy during the next five years; and how monetary policy has been implemented since the last Monetary Policy Statement.
Thursday, February 14, will begin with Chinese statistics. In China, there are data on exports, imports and trade balance for January. Analysts are already expecting a decline in exports of Chinese goods by 2.2% compared with December 2018 and a reduction in imports by 9%. In addition, the US Census Bureau will publish the total receipts of retail stores. Monthly per cent changes reflect the rate of changes in such sales. Changes in Retail Sales are widely followed as an indicator of consumer spending.
Retail sales statistics for December will be also released in the United States on Thursday. The market expects retail sales that do not include car sales in December rose by 0.1% compared with November.
The next day will not bring big surprises. Perhaps the most important in this day will be released in the morning data on consumer price inflation in China in January. Inflation is traditionally low, in December consumer prices rose by 1.9%. Slower rates of inflation in January may become negative for the yuan, and a slight acceleration of inflation – positive.
Our targets for:
EURUSD – buying to 1,14
GBPUSD – selling to 1,28
NZDUSD – selling to 0,6650