The US Dollar took advantage of the weakness of the european currencies and showed a bullish dynamic on the last week despite the reducing of the construction industry in the USA. The EURUSD pair has dropped 155 points to 1.1216, while the GBPUSD pair fell for 178 points to 1.3031 since Monday.
The Euro is under pressure due to the economic showdown in the european countries, as well as in Germany. Most of analytics expect a slow GDP growth in Germany, which will barely exceed 1%. The British Pound showed huge price range with other majors while the other votes in UK parliament didn’t bring up any clarity regarding the Brexit deal.
However, market participants have focused already on the macroeconomic statistics in Europe and USA, and the UK Parliamentary vote on Brexit during this week.
Today, the Retail sales ISM and Markit manufacturing PMI will be published in the US at 12:30 GMT. Also Markit Manufacturing PMI index was published in the european countries already. Still we expect volatility growth in the afternoon and rising of the EURUSD and GBPUSD pairs.
On Tuesday, RBA (reserve bank of Australia) Interest rate decision will be announced at 3:30 GMT and Durable and Nondefense Capital goods in the USA at 12:30 GMT. The Aussi showed mixed dynamic against dollar last week. The AUDUSD pair had tested 0.7060 support level and rebounded from it.
Today’s gap was on the Aussi side. If RBA give us any hawkish hints tomorrow, we will open buy position from 0.71-0.7150 levels with Take Profit at 0.72.
On Wednesday, a lot of Markit Services indices will be published in the Eurozone and USA. Also analytics expect that ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI in the US will be lower than in February (58.7 against 59.7). It is a bearish signal for the american currency. The positions of the US dollar could be
strengthened by the negotiations between China and the US in Washington on Wednesday.
On Thursday, the main data is expected in Canada. Ivey PMI index will be published at 14:00 GMT, also there will be EIA Natural Gas Storage Change info. We look forward growing of the US currency against Canadian dollar to 1.3450.
On Friday, Nonfarm payrolls data in the US, Unemployment rate in Canada will be published at 12:30 GMT. So, the main news of the week come on the last trading session. Potential reversal against the US dollar can be stopped due to the positive labor market data. However, we expect the rising of major pairs against the american currency.
So our targets for:
EURUSD – 1.1350
GBPUSD – 1.3180
AUDUSD – 0.72